Medicaid: What to Watch in 2024


As the beginning of 2024, many problems are at play that can impact Medicaid protection, financing, and get right of entry to. Medicaid is the main program offering complete fitness and long-term care protection to one in five low-income American citizens. The unwinding of the Medicaid steady enrollment provision began on April 1, 2023, and can proceed to be the dominant Medicaid coverage factor in 2024. Alternatively, adoption of the Reasonably priced Care Act (ACA) Medicaid growth and different protection and get right of entry to expansions, efforts to handle social determinants of fitness and facilitate re-entry for people transitioning from incarceration, long-term services and products and helps (LTSS) staff, and Medicaid financing also are key spaces to observe. Medicaid is probably not a big factor within the presidential election, however debate about repeal and change of the ACA, Medicaid paintings necessities, and federal financing for Medicaid may just emerge as nationwide election problems. As well as, as a big supply of protection for births, Black, Hispanic, American Indian or Alaska Local and Local Hawaiian or Different Pacific Islander populations, some lawfully provide immigrants, low-income children, working-age people with disabilities, and other folks wanting long-term services and supports, Medicaid would possibly underpin greater 2024 election problems. On the similar time, many states have noticed revenues decline just lately, which might building up force to cut back spending in Medicaid and different systems. This factor temporary supplies context for those Medicaid problems and highlights key problems to observe within the yr forward.

Unwinding of the Steady Enrollment Provision

The unwinding of the continual enrollment provision would be the dominant Medicaid coverage factor in 2024. Policies installed position to pause Medicaid disenrollments throughout the pandemic ended on March 31, 2023. At first of the unwinding length, in April 2023, Medicaid enrollment peaked at 94.5 million, an building up of 23 million or 32 % from prior to the pandemic. As of the tip of January 2024, states have reported renewal results for half of all enrollees, together with 34% (32.1 million) who’ve had their protection renewed and 17% (16.2 million) who’ve been disenrolled. The percentage of disenrollments going on for procedural or forms causes stays excessive in lots of states, and amid rising worry over lack of Medicaid protection for youngsters, in December 2023, federal officers issued new data and additional guidance highlighting methods to cut back procedural disenrollments for youngsters. The Secretary of HHS additionally despatched letters to nine states with massive declines in Medicaid kid enrollment, urging them to absorb further coverage choices to stop procedural disenrollments. As unwinding continues in 2024, information and experiences at the flooring can give insights about efficient methods to advertise continuity of protection and decrease procedural disenrollments. Total, the Medicaid enrollment has declined by means of just about 10% throughout states because the get started of unwinding in every state, with charges starting from 32% in Idaho to at least one% in Maine.

Medicaid Protection and Get right of entry to Expansions

At first of state legislative periods, a number of non-expansion states would possibly believe proposals to undertake the ACA Medicaid growth. South Dakota and North Carolina carried out the Medicaid growth in 2023. Within the 10 states that experience now not followed the ACA Medicaid growth, just about 1.5 million uninsured individuals fall into the “coverage gap.” Those folks don’t qualify for Medicaid however have incomes below poverty, making them ineligible for top rate subsidies within the ACA Market. The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) integrated a temporary fiscal incentive designed to inspire states to newly undertake the growth that has helped to reignite growth discussions. Whilst legislative leaders in Florida stay opposed to growth, Republicans in GeorgiaAlabama, and Mississippi is also open to a non-traditional Medicaid growth that would come with provisions now not another way allowed below present regulation (Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan and Utah are examples of states that function Medicaid growth thru an licensed Segment 1115 waiver). As well as, the Kansas governor, an established proponent of growth, as soon as once more integrated the proposal in her just lately released budget, at the side of a proposed paintings requirement.  Whilst some states is also debating growth, former President Trump introduced he would renew efforts to replace the ACA if elected, which might lead to diminished Medicaid protection and financing.

Different state and federal insurance policies would possibly enlarge protection for positive teams. Nearly all states (47) have followed an solution to lengthen postpartum protection from 60 days to twelve months. The Consolidated Appropriations Act integrated a demand for all states to put in force three hundred and sixty five days of constant eligibility for youngsters as of January 2024, and Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico have long past additional, receiving waiver approval to offer steady eligibility for youngsters from start to age 6. Different states are pursuing equivalent proposals. KFF analysis displays that steady eligibility insurance policies lend a hand to offer protection steadiness for youngsters. On the federal degree, the Biden Management proposed broad regulations to make it more uncomplicated for people to acquire and handle protection; and finalized the provisions to lend a hand low-income Medicare beneficiaries achieve get right of entry to to Medicaid protection of Medicare premiums and incessantly, charge sharing, in the course of the Medicare Financial savings Techniques.

Along with insurance policies to enlarge protection, there’s more likely to be a persevered effort to lend a hand ensure that get right of entry to to services and products in Medicaid. In comparison to adults with non-public protection or Medicare, Medicaid enrollees are much more likely to face problems with supplier availability and prior authorization; alternatively, on account of federal regulations that prohibit out-of-pocket prices, Medicaid enrollees are much less more likely to document cost-related issues. Pending federal rules purpose to lend a hand deal with availability of suppliers and get right of entry to in Medicaid by means of strengthening Scientific Care Advisory Committees (to permit for extra significant engagement from Medicaid enrollees), expanding transparency for fee-for-service (FFS) and controlled care bills, setting up nationwide most appointment wait time requirements for controlled care enrollees, and requiring state tracking associated with get right of entry to and community adequacy for controlled care plans. As well as, the Biden management just lately finalized rules to streamline prior authorization processes for Medicaid and different payers. On the state level, efforts to enlarge the scope of coated services and products (specifically for behavioral fitness), put in force projects to handle fitness disparities and make stronger fee charges are key methods underway to lend a hand bolster get right of entry to to deal with Medicaid enrollees.

Social Determinants of Well being and Re-Access

States and the Management are imposing methods to leverage Medicaid to handle social determinants of health (SDOH). To enlarge alternatives for states to make use of Medicaid to handle health-related social wishes (HRSN) comparable to housing instability and diet lack of confidence, CMS announced new flexibilities to be had to states thru managed care and thru Section 1115 demonstration waivers. New CMS steering accompanies the Biden-Harris Management’s unencumber of the U.S. Playbook to Cope with Social Determinants of Well being and HHS’s Call to Action to Cope with Well being-Comparable Social Wishes. As of January 2024, CMS has licensed Segment 1115 demonstrations in 8 states (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington) below the brand new HRSN 1115 framework that authorize evidence-based HRSN services for explicit high-need populations. Approvals come with protection of hire/transient housing and utilities for as much as 6 months and meal make stronger as much as 3 foods according to day (as much as 6 months). Those projects additionally require states to fulfill minimal supplier fee fee necessities for number one care, behavioral fitness, and obstetrics services and products to strengthen get right of entry to and to enrich (fairly than change) different efforts.

California and Washington gained approval and a number of other states have proposals pending for waivers to facilitate re-entry for many who are incarcerated.  In April 2023, CMS launched guidance encouraging states to use for a brand new Segment 1115 demonstration alternative to check transition-related methods to make stronger group re-entry and care transitions for many who are incarcerated. This chance permits states to partly waive the statutory Medicaid inmate exclusion policy, which prohibits Medicaid from paying for services and products equipped throughout incarceration (except for for inpatient services and products). Congress could also be making an allowance for a number of re-entry provisions in debate about reauthorization of the SUPPORT Act (main law handed in 2018 to handle the opioid epidemic) together with fighting Medicaid disenrollment because of incarceration, a coverage that might lend a hand ensure that continuity of Medicaid protection after leaving incarceration.

Personnel Demanding situations in Lengthy Time period Products and services and Helps and Behavioral Well being

Federal and state governments are responding to greater staff shortages and unmet wishes amongst individuals who use long-term services and products and helps (LTSS). The Management proposed a rule growing new staffing requirements in nursing facilities, requiring state Medicaid businesses to document the share of Medicaid spending for institutional LTSS that is going to repayment for direct care employees and make stronger body of workers, and offering investment for people to go into careers in nursing amenities. A proposed rule aimed toward making sure get right of entry to to all Medicaid services and products addresses the LTSS which might be equipped in non-institutional settings, which can be incessantly known as home- and group primarily based services and products (HCBS). The proposed rule would identify necessities referring to states’ payment rates for HCBS, amongst different provisions meant to handle get right of entry to to HCBS and Medicaid services and products extra widely. States have answered to staff demanding situations by means of expanding Medicaid fee charges for nursing amenities and HCBS as reported to KFF in a 2023 survey; however employment levels remained 10% beneath pre-pandemic ranges in October 2023. Because the primary payer of LTSS, force to additional building up staffing and lift repayment charges would possibly fall disproportionately to Medicaid, the place financing is shared between states and federal govt.

Loss of ok staff to fulfill expanding calls for for psychological fitness and substance use dysfunction services and products is more likely to persist in 2024. States are running to enlarge Medicaid get right of entry to to behavioral fitness services and products thru efforts to construct out the behavioral fitness continuum of care, combine bodily fitness and behavioral fitness services and products, put in force cell disaster services and products, and enlarge behavioral fitness services and products in faculties. Alternatively, get right of entry to relies on the provision of a mixture of services and products and the capacity of the behavioral health workforce. To lend a hand bolster the behavioral fitness staff, states are imposing several strategies together with expanding charges, decreasing burden and including incentives for suppliers to take part in Medicaid, and increasing staff.

Medicaid Financing

Slowing state income expansion can have implications for Medicaid coverage and spending. Medicaid financing is shared by means of the government and the states. In consequence, financial components that impact state revenues together with inflation, provide chain problems, exertions pressure participation charges, and adjustments within the inventory marketplace have fiscal implications for states. As state legislatures develop FY 2025 budgets, they going through declining revenues and the expiration of pandemic-era helps from the government, that might prohibit Medicaid investments or urged proposals to chop Medicaid spending to lend a hand handle balanced budgets. In 2024, declines in enrollment will give a contribution to decrease Medicaid spending expansion however the expiration of enhanced federal matching price range will building up state spending. Heading into FY 2025, substantial uncertainty remains about total Medicaid enrollment and the fitness care wishes of enrollees that retain protection.  Although nationwide financial signs stay robust, pandemic-related helps for families have additionally expired and families are still struggling to hide prices from report inflation throughout the pandemic. Broader debates about Medicaid financing may just get up throughout the Presidential election associated with efforts to cut back the federal deficit and prohibit entitlement spending; those are spaces of substantial coverage variations between Republican applicants and President Biden.

What to Watch

The problems recognized on this coverage watch can have main implications for Medicaid protection, financing, and get right of entry to. As those problems play out, the next key questions can be at the leading edge:

  • Who will win the presidency and keep an eye on Congress, which may have main implications for Medicaid coverage going ahead?
  • How will the Medicaid unwinding impact Medicaid enrollment and adjustments in protection, together with will increase within the selection of people who find themselves uninsured?
  • Will states undertake Medicaid protection expansions in 2024, together with Medicaid growth or multi-year steady eligibility for youngsters?
  • What number of states will advance new projects to make use of Medicaid to handle health-related social wishes or facilitate transitions from incarceration in 2024?
  • How will federal and state efforts to handle staff shortages for LTSS and behavioral fitness evolve in 2024?
  • How will state fiscal prerequisites and broader financial components impact Medicaid spending in addition to state and federal Medicaid coverage?



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